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Asia is the next growth driver for global aviation?

Asia is the next growth driver for global aviation?

KUALA LUMPUR: While there was no major aircraft purchases at the recently concluded Singapore Airshow 2018, industry experts say the event is more of a meeting point for airline operators and aviation companies and not an indication of the current state of the global aviation industry.

CAPA Centre for Aviation chief analyst and Southeast Asia chief representative Brendan Sobie said the airshow had never been about plane orders.

"You never see the kind of orders like you see at the Farnborough International Airshow or Dubai Airshow. There is a lot more to an airshow than just orders," he told NST Business recently.

Sobie pointed out that an airshow is an opportunity for many high level meetings to take place.

"It is still an important event but it was not used by airlines or plane manufacturers to announce big orders. That's the way it has always been and it will continue to be,” he added.

Sobie said Asia is the main growth market, reflecting in the current plane orderbook and interest level.

“Asia is theirs focus — orders are announced on a different cycle. The growth is still in Asia and most manufacturers are optimistic about this," he said, adding that growth is not measured by order book at a single event.

Sobie said the Singapore Airshow is about showcasing products and highlighting the growth opportunities in Asia and served as a platform for manufactures and other suppliers to discuss with customers.

“It is a major gathering avenue and not about major aircraft orders. A lot of airlines were at the show, discussing with the manufacturers. The show is not only about commercial aviation but the show has also a major military and business aviation presence as well.

"There were VIPs from major countries including military and civil aviation authorities, business jet operators as well as the airlines,” he said.

Sobie noted that aircraft manufactures normally ‘rush' to conclude and announce deals by the end of the calendar year to include in their year-end total sales.

Maybank Investment Bank aviation analyst Mohshin Aziz said airlines placed their aircraft orders in advance.

“They (airlines) have enough aircraft. Their growth pipeline has already been secured,” he said.

He added airlines make decision once every two or three years on aircraft purchases.

At the recent Singapore Airshow, ATR secured a US$100 million deal from Bangkok Airways for four new ATR72-600s.

The turbo-prop aircraft manufacturer also announced another deal worth up to US$20 million with Berjaya Hotels and Resorts for two pre-owned ATR 42-500s aircraft while Honda Aircraft of Japan sealed an US$80 million deal for 16 light jets for French air-taxi company, Wijet.

Malaysia-based aviation advisory firm Endau Analytics founder Shukor Yusof said there was no compelling reason to sign a major deal at the airshow, citing that people are thinking more and spending less.

“However, Asia is the engine of growth in the aviation industry and will be for decades to come,” he added.

Meanwhile, Airbus executive vice president and chief of sales, marketing and contracts Eric Schulz said the company had an excellent year in Asia Pacific last year, with half of its total sales coming from the region.

It delivered 718 aircraft to customers last year compared with Boeing's 763 planes last year.

"We see more potential in the coming years, in particular in the wide-body market, where the region will account for 46 per cent of total worldwide demand,” he said in a recent statement.

Boeing Commercial Airplanes vice president of marketing Randy Tinseth was reported saying Asia Pacific region would be the aviation future, accounting to about 40 per cent of the producer's future market demand.

“If we look at the growth over the next few years, half the growth will be here in the Asia Pacific market,” he said.

Tinseth pointed out the region has been performing well, both in terms of traffic growth for passengers as well as cargo.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) forecast the global passenger traffic is expected to increase six per cent to 4.3 billion passengers this year.

IATA also projected that the global industry net profit to rise to US$38.4 billion in 2018, an improvement from the US$34.5 billion expected net profit in 2017.

Mohshin said Asia is still an important market for aviation sector to grow, noting that more than half of the world's population is in the region.

“China and India are the big portions. Asean region has more than 600 million people. These three regions are still at an early stage of growth and there is still a lot of growth.

“Therefore, more people started to fly and their wealth are developing. They fly more often. This is where the growth is,” he said.

He noted other regions like Europe and American are matured markets, nothing that the population was not really growing.

“The growth in those regions is expected to be modest. Hence, the new growth for the future is definitely in Asia," he said.